U.S. Election Aftershocks Fade, Data Back In Spotlight

Tuesday, 12 November 2024, 09.00 – German CPI (MoM)(Oct)

Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2024 rose by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the market’s expectation of a 0.2% increase and marking a recovery from the flat performance in September. This uptick was primarily driven by higher service prices and a rebound in goods prices. The stronger-than-expected CPI, from the EU’s largest economy, could potentially reduce the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). Looking ahead, the upcoming CPI release is expected to show continued stability and resilience, though there may be some upward pressure from rising energy prices and service costs.

Wednesday, 13 November 2024, 15:30 – U.S. CPI (YoY) (Oct)

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year ending September 2024 was reported at 2.4%, slightly above the market forecast of 2.3%, but down from the previous month’s reading of 2.5%. This decline aligns with the broader trend of slowing inflation, reflecting the effects of previous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve aimed at controlling rising prices. The moderation in inflation is primarily driven by stabilized energy costs and improvements in supply chain conditions. However, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%, continuing to shape policy discussions. While inflationary pressures could stay somewhat elevated in the coming months, further moderation is possible if energy prices stabilize and consumer demand continues to soften.

Thursday, 14 November 2024, 09:00 – UK GDP (YoY) (Q3)

The UK’s GDP growth for the second quarter of 2024 showed a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 0.7%, surpassing the forecast of 0.3%, though falling slightly short of the expected 0.9%. The stronger-than-expected growth was driven by a robust performance in the services sector, particularly in business services and finance, along with a rebound in household consumption despite ongoing inflationary pressures. This better-than-anticipated result points to some resilience in the UK economy amid global challenges, such as rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. The upward revision from the previous quarter’s lower growth suggests the economy may be stabilizing, supported by continued consumer spending and business investment. However, expectations for the upcoming release remain cautious, with the potential for a moderate slowdown, as pressures on consumer spending and public sector output could limit growth.

Friday, 15 November 2024, 15:30 – US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

U.S. retail sales showed solid growth in September, rising by 0.4%, surpassing the market’s expectation of 0.3% and up from the 0.1% increase in August. This rise was likely driven by lower gasoline prices, which gave consumers more disposable income to spend at restaurants and bars, reinforcing the view that the economy continued to grow strongly in the third quarter. The data also highlighted significant gains in sales at clothing stores and miscellaneous retailers, as well as a boost in online purchases and spending at health and personal care stores. Looking ahead, the upcoming data is expected to show continued robust consumer spending, suggesting that economic growth in the previous quarter was above trend and is likely to persist into the next quarter.